Current Price
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Regression (fair value)
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Model fair value today
Support Floor
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Historical lower bound
Resistance Ceiling
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Historical upper bound
Power Law Health
Structural integrity of the power law — is the log-weighted balance near its historical minimum or maximum?
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Weighted Balance
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log-area above minus below regression
historical range: 0.0 to +4.0
historical range: 0.0 to +4.0
Monthly Rate
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how fast balance is changing now
Time to Zero
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months until law enters deficit
Power Law Stress Oscillator
Potential energy stored in the system — how compressed or extended is the spring in dollar terms? (Hooke's Law analogy)
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Stress Score
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0 = max compression (now)
100 = max extension (Nov 2021)
100 = max extension (Nov 2021)
$ Gap from Regression
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current price vs fair value
Recovery Target
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peak price for a 3–4 month spike to restore balance
Max compression
Equilibrium
Max extension
Power Law Chart — Log Scale
BTC price vs power law bands · dashed lines show Law Health and Stress Oscillator (right axis, 0–100)
BTC Price
Resistance
Regression
Support
Law Health (0–100)
Law Stress (0–100)
Normal zone (26–35)
Price Projections
Model values at key future dates (mid-year)
| Year | Support | Regression | Resistance |
|---|---|---|---|
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What the bands mean
Support
The historical price floor (regression × 0.42). Bitcoin has only traded below this once — briefly during the March 2020 pandemic crash.
Regression
The model’s “fair value” — a log-log linear regression of all Bitcoin price data since genesis. Price oscillates above and below this line each cycle.
Resistance
Derived from the Stress Oscillator: a 3–4 month spike to ~1.5× regression would create enough dollar-area above the regression line to balance the current deficit. This is not arbitrary — it is the price level the system’s potential energy mathematically requires to restore equilibrium. Prior cycle peaks: 15× (2013) → 7× (2017) → 3× (2021) → 1.1× (2025). The compression is real, but the deficit still demands a meaningful spike.
Signal zones
Accumulate (Strong)PLI 0 – 15Near support — historically rare
AccumulatePLI 15 – 35Well below fair value — strong entry
Accumulate (Mild)PLI 35 – 50Below fair value — reduce size near pivot
▲ below regression · above regression ▼
Hold / TrimPLI 50 – 65Above fair value — begin trimming
Take ProfitPLI 65 – 80Meaningfully extended — scale out
Divest (Strong)PLI 80 – 100Significantly extended — at or above 1.5× regression
Model Configuration
Adjust power law constants — updates all charts and projections instantly
P = coefficient × t^exponent · Support = regression × supportMult · Resistance = regression × resistanceMult · t = days since Jan 3 2009 · Default 1.5× resistance is stress-oscillator derived: the spike height needed to balance the current dollar deficit via a 3–4 month peak